Oil prices forecasts: 2026 oil price Prediction

Explore third-party monthly forecasts for crude oil (CL) price.

What you’ll learn:

• Crude oil historical prices.
• Near-term crude oil price forecast.
• Factors influencing crude prices.

Crude oil price history:

• ~1973 oil shock: prices roughly quadrupled after the embargo (from ~$3 to ~$12/bbl).
  
• ~1986 glut: prices fell sharply below ~$10/bbl amid oversupply.
  
• July 2008 peak: Brent and WTI near record highs (~$147/bbl).
  
• 2014-16 collapse: Brent dropped from >$100 to below ~$30/bbl.
  
• April 2020 COVID crash: WTI futures went negative (~-$37/bbl); Brent also plunged sharply.
  
• 2022 post-Ukraine invasion: Brent averaged near ~$100/bbl.
  
• (WTI trend 2000-2024): WTI was ~$39.25/bbl (2020) → ~$94.58 (2022) → ~$75.87 (2024).

• 2025 average (EIA/analyst forecasts): Brent ≈ $68-69/bbl, WTI ≈ $64-65/bbl.

• ~2026 volatility: Oil prices remain highly sensitive to geopolitical tensions, especially in the Middle East, causing short-term spikes.

View crude oil historical chart:

Third-party near-term crude oil price forecasts & oil price predictions

Goldman Sachs

According to Reuters, GlobalBankingandFinance, and Kitco articles, Goldman Sachs projects oil prices will remain highly volatile in the near term, driven primarily by uncertainty around Middle East supply disruptions and the status of flows through the Strait of Hormuz.

Following a temporary U.S.-Iran ceasefire, Goldman revised down its short-term forecasts, reflecting a partial easing of the geopolitical risk premium. The bank now expects:

• Q2 2026: Brent ~$90/bbl, WTI ~$87/bbl
• Q3 2026: Brent ~$82/bbl
• Q4 2026: Brent ~$80/bbl

However, Goldman emphasises that risks remain skewed to the upside, with prices potentially rising significantly if disruptions persist. In a severe supply shock scenario (e.g., prolonged outages of ~2 mb/d), Brent could reach ~$115/bbl.

More broadly, Goldman’s updated 2026 outlook centres around a base-case average of ~$85/bbl, reflecting continued geopolitical risk alongside partial normalisation of flows. (Source: Reuters, 19 March 2026, Kitco, 22 March 2026, and GlobalBankingandFinance, 9 April 2026).

Reuters

According to eight analysts polled by Reuters, oil prices are expected to remain elevated and highly volatile in the near term as the Iran conflict has significantly disrupted global supply, flipping the oil market from a previously anticipated surplus into a supply deficit for 2026.

The disruption, particularly to flows through the Strait of Hormuz, which handles a large share of global oil, has tightened market balances, with analysts now expecting demand to exceed supply by around 750,000 barrels per day.

As a result, prices are likely to stay under upward pressure, driven primarily by geopolitical risks rather than underlying fundamentals, while remaining prone to sharp swings depending on developments in the conflict and the extent of supply disruptions.. (Source: Reuters, 10 April 2026)

EIA

According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, if the conflict in the Middle East persists, oil prices are expected to rise sharply in the near term, with Brent increasing from about $103/bbl in March to a peak near $115/bbl in Q2 2026.

This spike is driven by significant production outages (up to ~9 mb/d) and constrained flows through the Strait of Hormuz, tightening global supply and drawing down inventories.

However, the EIA assumes the disruption is temporary; as supply gradually returns, prices are expected to ease later in 2026, falling below ~$90/bbl by year-end. (Source: EIA, 7 April 2026)

Drivers & risks for short-term oil prices

Short-term oil prices remain volatile due to geopolitical tensions, especially in the Middle East, where conflicts threaten chokepoints such as the Strait of Hormuz, pushing Brent higher. Supply factors, including OPEC+ decisions, U.S. shale output, and unexpected disruptions, influence availability, while global demand trends and inventory levels affect near-term pressures, as noted by the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

Market sentiment and speculation can amplify price swings. Analysts surveyed by Reuters highlight that geopolitical risks have raised 2026 price forecasts, though oversupply may limit gains. Key risks include escalation of conflicts, sudden supply shocks, weak demand, and speculative volatility.

Key takeaways:

• Oil prices remain highly sensitive to geopolitical shocks, especially in the Middle East
• Short-term outlook: elevated prices with significant volatility
• The market has shifted from expected surplus to potential deficit, supporting prices
• Upside risk dominates (supply disruptions could push prices >$100)
• Downside exists if tensions ease and oversupply returns
• Overall: geopolitics driving prices in the short term, fundamentals point to moderation later

*The content provided on this website is for marketing and general informational purposes only. It does not constitute investment research, advice, or a personal recommendation, nor has it been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Information and views are based on third-party sources and historical data believed to be reliable, but no representation or warranty is made as to their accuracy or completeness. Any opinions or forecasts are subject to change without notice, and past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. This material does not consider individual objectives or financial circumstances and should not be relied upon as personalised advice. PLUS500 does not provide investment research or personalised recommendations and accepts no liability for any loss arising from the use of this information.